counter China : MGx – Musings, Essays & Ballads

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More on the reopening of Mountain Pass rare earth mine

America’s dependence upon China for rare earths critical to high gauss magnets and many ingredients used in the production of every day items like cell phones and computers has been an issue I have written about several times before. The Department of Defense is certainly concerned because Chinese made magnets are present in every weapons guidance system, every fighter jet, every modern day communication and as we get more and more in debt to China, obviously it is a strategic concern. So Molycorp is trying to raise $500M to reopen Mountain Pass Mine in California.

A lot is riding on Molycorp’s success. If the mine can be restarted and Molycorp is able to lower costs of production enough to maintain competitive, it will be the only rare earth oxide operation in the Western hemisphere. And it has a decent chance, since existing infrastructure is already in place and Molycorp said in the IPO filing that it has improved the technology used in production to reduce water and energy use. And Molycorp intends to buy a company that already has the technology to produce rare earth metals and alloys in the U.S. and secure a joint venture agreement with magnet manufacturer. This means Molycorp would be able to mine the ore , separate out the rare earth minerals and then turn them into usable products.

The U.S. military and cleantech industry are certainly paying attention. Rare earths are crucial to defense and weapons systems.

Rare earth magnets are used extensively in wind turbine generators and electric cars and for this reason my conpany, Rogue River Wind, hope to use some patentable magnet topologies that enable us to extract high gauss ratings from good old fashioned ferrites if supply becomes tight.

Americans fear debt to China more than terrorism

A new Zogby poll indicates Americans are wisely beginning to question the manner in which we have financed the war against terrorism. Meanwhile China engages in female infanticide.

More than twice as many U.S. adults (58%) say that debt owed to China is a more serious threat to the long-term security and well-being of the U.S than is terrorism from radical Islamic terrorists (27%).

Interestingly there was little variation by party identification with a majority of Democrats, Republicans and independents all agreeing that the debt owed by the United States to China poses the greater threat.

Meanwhile, in a painful snapshot of the social values of Americas largest creditor ‘gendercide’, discarding infant girls at birth, is still practiced in China to bad effect.

XINRAN XUE, a Chinese writer, describes visiting a peasant family in the Yimeng area of Shandong province. The wife was giving birth. “We had scarcely sat down in the kitchen”, she writes (see article), “when we heard a moan of pain from the bedroom next door…The cries from the inner room grew louder—and abruptly stopped. There was a low sob, and then a man’s gruff voice said accusingly: ‘Useless thing!’

“Suddenly, I thought I heard a slight movement in the slops pail behind me,” Miss Xinran remembers. “To my absolute horror, I saw a tiny foot poking out of the pail. The midwife must have dropped that tiny baby alive into the slops pail! I nearly threw myself at it, but the two policemen [who had accompanied me] held my shoulders in a firm grip. ‘Don’t move, you can’t save it, it’s too late.’

The result of the male female imbalance is that unpartnered young adult males turn to crime and violence.

Throughout human history, young men have been responsible for the vast preponderance of crime and violence—especially single men in countries where status and social acceptance depend on being married and having children, as it does in China and India. A rising population of frustrated single men spells trouble.

The crime rate has almost doubled in China during the past 20 years of rising sex ratios, with stories abounding of bride abduction, the trafficking of women, rape and prostitution. A study into whether these things were connected† concluded that they were, and that higher sex ratios accounted for about one-seventh of the rise in crime. In India, too, there is a correlation between provincial crime rates and sex ratios. In “Bare Branches”††, Valerie Hudson and Andrea den Boer gave warning that the social problems of biased sex ratios would lead to more authoritarian policing. Governments, they say, “must decrease the threat to society posed by these young men. Increased authoritarianism in an effort to crack down on crime, gangs, smuggling and so forth can be one result.”

Gender discrepancy is happening all over the world with a corresponding rise in violence… boys need girls and we girls need boys in equal numbers or all hell breaks out.

Also, while on the subject of China, South Africa is now accepting major investments in energy and rare earth mining and refining from China. Like America, they hope to develop jobs and improve the South African economy. Relying heavily on China hasn’t worked out so well here.

Rare earth shortages may put China in the drivers seat on green energy

As I have been writing for some time, China controls the rare earth magnet market. With the push for more wind farms and electric vehicles and China’s own growth in these industries, China may stop exporting except within a completed manufactured product.

“Countries and companies that have or plan to develop industries that need rare earth minerals to make products are concerned about China’s growing consumption, which they fear will eliminate China’s exports of rare earths,” said W. David Menzie, chief of the international minerals section at the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS).

China has also encouraged companies that use rare earths to locate their manufacturing facilities in China, Menzie told TechNewsDaily. But some companies fear moving because of concerns about intellectual property protection, he added.

China is fast becoming known, rightly or wrongly, as the king of IP ripoffs and few companies want to take the chance of partnering with them, especially on their own turf. Then, of course, for socially conscientious companies that want to create manufacturing jobs in the US, moving to China is not an option.

There is some pressure on Congress to provide incentives to support the mining of existing rare earth deposits in the US but the technology to process it still lies with the Chinese. Some are speculating the next resource wars will not be held over oil but rare earth metals.

Rare earth neodymium magnets are critical to the wind industry, including the V-LIM, and while there are plans to reopen Mountain Pass in California for rare earth mining, there is no ready solution in sight despite neodymium being a critical part of all weapons guidance systems and homeland security.

As one of the worst polluters on the planet, knowing the future of green energy, homeland security and the weapons and guidance systems on everytank, fighter jet and aircraft carrier relies on foreign relations with China is a bit scary.

Consequences of County dealing with undercapitalized company

Previously I have written about the lock the Chinese have on the production of rare earth neodymium magnets. With the massive build up planned for wind power, magnets are more and more a premium as well as crucial to national security. Every jet fighter carries several pounds of magnets necessary for electrical functions and guidance systems. According to this interview with mining analyst, John Kaiser, China has a lock on a lot more and a strategic plan that might be pretty scary for underfunded companies. This quote is very telling

In the case of most of the Chinese mining companies, they are all at least partly if not wholly owned by the State. And we just saw an example where a distressed Australian company, which had several hundred million dollars lined up from Western sources to put its rare deposit into production, had the plug pulled on them. The stock was at 10 cents, they were dead in the water, and then the Chinese came in and ponied up $360 million in a combination debt equity financing that will give them majority control of this company and, of course, they’ve got all the boilerplate in the news release saying we will honor all the offtake agreements. All these offtake agreements are just good for five years and they only represent a small fraction of the total resource that will now be under the control, indirectly, of the Chinese government. So, in a sense, they’ve tied up what could have been one of the independent sources of raw materials in the world for the non-Chinese manufacturers.

Read the entire interview, but it does not take much of a stretch of the imagination to believe we will be giving up more of our natural resources to China, a country to which we are already seriously indebted and dependent upon for much of our rare earth metals.

Complex solutions give little wriggle room

Energy creation is relatively simple in theory. Rare earth high gauss magnets spin past copper coils along a magnetically permeable stator core and electromotive force (EMF) is the result. While there are a myriad of technical details that optimize this effect nothing more complicates the production of energy today than the geopolitical climate surrounding rare earth elements (REE).
World demand for energy production is growing exponentially at 10% per year and rare earth elements play a key role. Presently, it is estimated that 90% of the world supply of REE are in China and China consumes 65% of that supply. Asia and Japan consume 25% and the US uses 10%.
Demand for REE is expected to exceed the known reserves by 2012 and China, as a result of the Olympics and production cutbacks is reducing exports of REE to 22% curtailing output by Japanese hybrid vehicle manufacturers. China is also buying up copper mines around the world and all this demonstrates that renewable energies are dependent upon good relations with our largest creditor.
The more complex, sophisticated and technical our society has become has added a layer of dependence not seen in preindustrial times upon our resource depleted nation. We cannot start addressing these issues soon enough because industry was born out of the easily obtained resources that clung to the surface and now those resources are much harder to obtain.
Sustainable industrial societies are now hindered by the complexity created by the benefits of modernization, namely electricity we have all come to rely upon. In South Africa, production of platinum used in catalytic converters and computer hard drives has been severely impaired by chronic rolling electricity blackouts. Platinum, unlike gold is driven by market demand and supply. With 80% of the supply being in South Africa even the US recession and subsequent lower car sales will not result in lower prices or higher availability.
The availability of REE and platinum and copper are naturally a significant part of the business plan for a small renewable energy start up like mine. The more driven I am toward sustainability and energy independence the more I discover that factors totally beyond my control like US foreign policy and the declining US dollar make those goals harder and harder to reach.
There are other REE deposits but like off shore oil, they are less accessible and access must yet be developed. Complex industrial infrastructure is necessary to extract these resources and the very complexity of these solutions doesn’t allow for errors or false steps. Catastrophic events, hurricanes like Katrina, earthquakes, tsunamis, climate change, global economic downturns and war don’t allow us the luxury of complexity.
Complex solutions to increasing energy needs are going to show diminishing returns over time and is one of the reasons I support localizing food production as well as energy production and other essential services. As resources become more scarce and difficult to obtain we have less time to find complex solutions to societal problems. Sometimes the best way is the simple way and local independence, living with the resources at hand, may be the simple way.

Trade deficit is weakening our global standing

Probably everyone has noticed already but crude oil hit $126 a barrel on Friday, just in time for the summer driving season. The significance of this is deeply reflected in our national trade deficit where according to the US Department of Energy we import 12 to 14 million barrels of oil per day. Foreign oil imports account for over $1.5B per day and are the single largest contributor to our balance of trade deficit.

Importing oil and foreign goods exports local dollars and has contributed to the decline in value of US currency. Iran, the second largest oil producer in OPEC has stopped conducting transactions in US dollars, in favor of euros or the yen, to reduce their reliance on Washington economic and foreign policy.

America once produced enough domestic oil to provide cheap gas and even to export surplus resources and build our economy but those days are over. Exporting our dollars leaves less money available to invest in our infrastructure or even to invest in other sources of wealth. In contrast, China with whom we have a record $233B trade deficit, recently secured control over one of the world’s largest copper mines in Afghanistan.

Copper is a necessary component in the production of electricity along with magnets. China is estimated to hold 98% of the world’s neodymium reserves used in the production of high gauss magnets critical to the production of electricity. It would be fair to speculate that China is heavily vested in energy production.

The US is the largest oil consumer in the world and with domestic production drying up it is no wonder that our trade imbalance is so high. Presently, at an average of 27 gallons per day per soldier, the Pentagon accounts for the largest percentage of oil consumption spending $14M per day or over $5B a year just to stay in Iraq. Estimates indicate that the US military consumes as much oil as it liberates occupying Iraq.

It is worth noting that our defense systems are heavily dependent upon magnets as well as oil. Every fighter jet, weapons and guidance system, humvee and hand held communications device requires magnets, most of which are gotten directly or indirectly from China

So sorry is our dependence upon foreign oil that Russia, which now produces much more power than it consumes, is now outpacing the US on strategic energy alliances. Our dependence has greatly weakened our standing around the globe.

Oil company profits are at record highs, averaging $1,300 per second while consumers are paying record highs at the pump. One consequence of this demand on our pocketbooks is that our consumption has dropped which induced a record 5.7% drop in imports last March. This resulted in a .3% greater than expected increase in economic growth according to the US Department of Commerce.

Certainly .3% is not a lot but it is something and demonstrates the importance of if not having a trade surplus at least balancing imports and exports. Coos County suffers from a trade deficit as well and exporting our dollars instead of localizing them has the county labeled as economically distressed and suffering from high unemployment.

Like the national statistics this impaired spending may force us to consume less or rethink ways of keeping our dollars local. Obviously, one way is to use less energy or start producing energy locally. Small things can make a difference. Last March during Earth Hour communities around the globe participated by turning off lights and appliances for one hour and in Sydney, Australia it amounted to a 10% reduction in energy use across the city. Here in Coquille the only house dark during the hour as we walked around was mine and a friend’s.

Our economy will force us into conservation but we can also voluntarily take daily small steps toward local economic independence and environmental responsibility. Walk or ride a bike whenever possible. Turn off your lights and refrigerator for an hour each day. Buy locally grown produce that isn’t shipped and imported from outside the county. We need to keep our dollars local.

Scrap copper worth its weight in copper

The price of copper is rising due in no small part to the increase in power generation. Foreclosed on homes are being gutted of copper pipes and sold at scrap and then exported to, yup, you guessed it, China.

scrap copper sells for about $3.50 a pound — against 70 cents just three years ago.

He and other scrap traders estimate that more than 80 percent of recycled copper is exported to China and India.

Warren Gelman, president of merchant broker Kataman Metals Inc in St Louis, Missouri, said illegal trade is just a small fraction of the scrap metals business.

Copper and magnets are the new gold rush in this brave new world of energy consumption.

Fossil fuel in demand

Energy demands around the world sees record US coal exports.

U.S. coal exports are responding to a combination of high demand and problems in some other coal-producing countries. In China, a bitter winter has made shipping coal difficult while Australia is struggling to increase production and flooding has closed some mines.

The U.S. dollar’s decline in value also makes the price attractive.

Peabody owns 30 percent of the Dominion Terminal Associates facility in Newport News, Va. Dominion President Charles Brinley told the Post-Dispatch the sudden increase in demand was a surprise.

They have already exported more in 2008 than the whole of 2007.

Most likely threat down the road, China

Bush requested the largest one year Pentagon budget exclusive of Iraq and Afghanistan ever, $515.4B. On the ‘buy’ list are F-22 Raptors, a CVN-78 aircraft carrier and a Virginia class nuclear submarine. In order to pitch this to Congress and the American people guess who the ‘threat’ target is? As detailed by Michael Klare…

Against whom are these super-sophisticated ships and planes intended to be deployed? Not Iran, which is still largely equipped with aging US arms acquired in the 1970s during the reign of the Shah. Not Syria or North Korea, both still equipped with Korean- and Vietnam War-era Soviet castoffs. Not any of the other so-called rogue states against which Bush has railed so often. In fact, it is impossible to conceive of any adversary with the capacity to engage the United States on anything approaching major-power status except China.

The China threat
In their efforts to secure funding for all these costly new weapons, US military officials – and their allies in Congress and the corporate world – have begun highlighting the China threat.

The American people have been sold before and time will tell if they will be sold again.

Just as the Department of Defense and its corporate allies often touted the “Soviet threat” during the Cold War period to stampede Congress and the American public into supporting ever-increasing spending on advanced weapons, so a hypothetical “China threat” will now be conjured up to achieve the same purpose in the post-Cold War era.

With the US public concerned over the rising costs of the Iraq war and other national priorities – health care, education, alternative energy development, the mortgage crisis, and so on – such threat amplification will become indispensable to ensure adequate funding for the Pentagon’s favored weapons programs.

This level of defense spending is not sustainable and history is replete with fallen empires that can attribute their demise to an imbalance between military actions and providing for their people.

Global military complex

The fight for energy, the need to provide for and control the increasing population and the lust for power are driving the planet toward a massive military showdown.

Since the dawn of the 21st century, five of the six countries involved in the six-party talks have increased their military spending by 50% or more. The sixth, Japan, has maintained a steady, if sizeable military budget while nonetheless aspiring to keep pace. Every country in the region is now eagerly investing staggering amounts of money in new weapons systems and new offensive capabilities.

The arms race in Northeast Asia undercuts all talk of peace in the region. It also sustains a growing global military-industrial complex. Northeast Asia is where four of the world’s largest militaries – those of the United States, China, Russia, and Japan – confront each other. Together, the countries participating in the six-party talks account for approximately 65% of world military expenditures, with the US responsible for roughly half the global total.

Here is the real news that should hit the front pages of papers today: wars grip Iraq, Afghanistan and large swathes of Africa, but the heart of the global military-industrial complex lies in Northeast Asia. Any attempt to drive a stake through this potentially destabilizing monster must start with the militaries that face one another there.

Of course, sustaining military budgets of such grand proportions is not possible. Read The Rise and Fall of the Great Empires by Paul Kennedy to learn what history teaches us. Downfall, catastrophic downfall is inevitable.

Critics of the North Korean regime often point out that its military spending is ultimately a human-rights violation, because the government essentially takes food out of the mouths of its people to spend on armaments. North Korea is, however, just a particularly gross example of an expanding global problem. Each of the six countries in the new Pacific arms race has devised a wealth of rationales for its military spending – and each has ignored significant domestic needs in the process.

Given the sums that would be necessary to address the decommissioning of nuclear weapons, the looming crisis of climate change, and the destabilizing gap between rich and poor, such spending priorities are in themselves a threat to humanity.

The world put 37% more into military spending in 2006 than in 1997. If the “peace dividend” that was to follow the end of the Cold War never quite appeared, a decade later the world finds itself burdened with quite the opposite: a genuine peace deficit.

The same is true in the US

Ouch! Keynesian quackery

From Asia Times, the flacid, pint sized ‘stimulus package’ needs more than Viagra to make any headway.

I get a real laugh (“Hahaha!”) out of the US emergency stimulus program of just giving away $150 billion in $800 increments to various citizens, who total, I assume, 18,750,000 people at 800 clams apiece. Hahaha! Free money! We have now reached the point where the economy is so screwed up from the Federal Reserve’s neo-Keynesian econometric stupidities that they are reduced to urging Congress to give money away to keep the economy from imploding because they can’t find people to loan money to at interest rates that are less than the rate of inflation? Hahaha! We’re doomed!

The point of the article is to invest in gold, expected at some point to be worth $10k per ounce as a hedge against the ‘collapse’. Whether that is true or not is too deep for me but Mogambo takes another stab at the stimulus package by pointing out that we are financing our tax cuts by borrowing money, mostly from China.

Then I knew I was right about it being the stimulus program that has unnerved him when he went on to say, “the chicken-in-every-pot that the US government is about to offer Americans via a tax rebate is so puny and belated a ‘solution’ as to be laughable. Even if such Keynesian quackery could work, and even if the government were to enact a big enough giveaway to thwart deflation for perhaps a year or two – say, by offering every household a new Chevy Tahoe or a kitchen-remodel – it would only put us that much deeper in debt, since Congress would be spending money created from thin air rather than raised through taxes.”

Our federal deficit is now bigger than our budget! Think about that.

China dumps US dollars while world holds its breath

From the Existentialist Cowboy

Highly leveraged US expansion, growth and empire are about to be swept away like a bamboo hut. As China leads the world in dumping dollars, the US appears to have exhausted the means by which it can continue to leverage or finance expansion and imperialism.

Bush could not have picked a worse time to ratchet up his anti-Iran rhetoric. China’s disenchantment with US dollars is a reaction to Bush’s bellicose rhetoric. Iran’s strategic position was recognized by Alexander the Great, significantly the last “conqueror” to have successfully invaded from the west.

As this blog reported recently, Bush promised that the US would join an Israeli nuclear strike on Iran. It is impossible to tell if the US rhetoric is in response to Iranian threats to dump dollars or Iran’s response to Bush’s promise to join an Israeli nuclear strike on Iran. The GOP seems unconcerned as Bush’s big mouth continues to make the rest of world jittery.

Asia isn’t the only one skittish, Europe and the UK are trembling as well.

The stock market was in meltdown today as nearly £60billion was wiped off London shares.

A combination of poor economic figures and the worsening global credit crunch sent the FTSE 100 plunging.

At one stage the drop was the biggest since 9/11 in 2001, although the index of Britain’s biggest companies later clawed back some of the losses. At lunchtime the Footsie was down 250.1 points to 5647.8.

Yes, this is all in response to the failed financial strategies of the Bush administration

The fall came as Asian markets tumbled overnight following losses for the Dow Jones Industrial Average on Friday, when investors were left unimpressed by the US Government’s tax-relief plans to spur on the economy.

(hat tip/ Excuuuuuuse me!)

UPDATE:More panic from International Herald Tribune

http://iht.com/articles/2008/01/21/business/markets.3-208777.php

Energy dependence and the decline of empire

US military forces, having been stretched thin protecting global oil resources, are also one of the largest oil consumers effectively fighting wars for oil to fuel wars. This disastrous course has led to a foreign policy that has so weakened our energy thirsty country that despite our military might has been unable to maintain control of strategic energy resources through non military means.

Russia, Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan signed an agreement Thursday to build a natural gas pipeline along the Caspian Sea coast that would strengthen Moscow’s monopoly on energy exports from the resource-rich region.

But the plan also delivers a strong blow to Western hopes of securing alternate energy export routes.

The policy of spreading democracy by might and playing policeman to oil pipelines seems little more than a strategy to expatriate American dollars while they are still worth something in the form of payments to war contractors who then convert them to Euros and Yen. Contrast that with the EU

The European Union leads the world in spending on development assistance and aid; the United States leads the world in military spending. The European Union has expanded its diplomatic reach to geographically strategic regions, such as the Middle East and Africa, through its Neighborhood Policy (ENP); the United States funds a war, waged for inauspicious reasons in order to secure resource materials and promote democracy in an historically undemocratic region. The European Union spends €7.1 billion [US $10.4 billion] a year on renewable energy and is an active participant in the Kyoto Protocol; the United States is not a ratified member of Kyoto for a bundle of political reasons, yet claims to be promoting “clean energy alternatives” nonetheless.

The US Congress just committed another $70b so our troops can be killed and maimed guarding corporate interests. When is America going to stand up and fight for them and stop our dependence upon foreign oil? Meanwhile, China is on the march diplomatically as the last vestiges of the American empire sputter and die.

UPDATE:

Energy, copper, magnets and China, again!

As the developer of a high efficiency wind turbine and high bandwidth direct drive DC generator, I pay close attention to the price of copper and magnets as they are crucial to creating energy. Previously I wrote how China having 98% of the world’s neodymium reserves holds the market on high gauss magnets. The Department of Defense has been tasked with determining whether US reliance on China for crucial components is putting our national security at risk…

China dominates the market for production of certain high performance magnets (primarily rare earth and aluminum-nickel-cobalt magnets) that are important to defense applications such as radar systems, submarine valves, missiles, military aircraft, inertial devices, and precision-guided weapons. Domestic production of these magnets has declined over the past decade. However, DoD demand for these magnets is less than 0.5% of worldwide demand, and the Department is able to access the high performance magnets it requires from domestic sources. The Department is examining whether there is any likely future risk to the domestic high performance magnet industry that would require DoD action.

While the official response from DoD is that the military is able to obtain all magnets from domestic sources, those domestic sources must still obtain those magnets from China, Now China has scored another energy coup with an investment by China Metallurgical Group’s $4 billion investment in one of the world’s largest copper fields in Afghanistan.

The project involves US$4 billion in investment by China Metallurgical Group, which will be by far the biggest foreign investment in Afghanistan and is estimated to provide employment for 10,000 people. Significantly, the project includes the development of a railway system linking Afghanistan to China. (Nepal also has sought the extension of China’s railway system from Lhasa to Kathmandu.)

China’s present and projected power consumption needs can easily explain why they are intent upon maintaining a ready supply of materials necessary to meet those needs. How this effects the US’ equally voracious energy appetite is unclear but this appears to me to be yet another consequence of our foreign policy failures in the Middle East and puts Afghanistan back on the front burner